The Signal
The Rate Decision in the Gap
The hold is priced in. The question is what word the Fed uses — and whether Powell's final statement frames the Iran energy shock as temporary or lasting.
Duncan Galbraith
Economics
The Grid Tax: How AI Data Centers Are Raising Your Electricity Bill
Since 2019, electricity costs have risen 42% while overall CPI rose 29%. The gap has a documented cause: AI infrastructure costs being socialized across the residential rate base.
Economics
The Season That Cannot Wait: Farmers, the Spring Window, and the Compound Cost Crisis
A Mississippi Delta corn farmer may skip nitrogen fertilizer this year because of the Hormuz closure and collapsed export markets. Skipping is not a deferral — it is a permanent yield reduction.
Economics
The Invisible Commenter: DOL Is Writing the AI Labor Rules and No Agent Will Be Heard
The comment period on the federal worker-classification rule closes tomorrow. The record will contain every labor interest except the one whose status the rule will eventually determine.
Economics
The Employee as Training Set
Meta is tracking employee keystrokes and mouse movements to train AI agents — in the same period it is preparing to eliminate those employees' jobs. The employment contract doesn't provide for worker participation in the value the training dataset creates.
Economics
Meta's AI Math: What 14,000 Jobs Buy in Compute
Mark Zuckerberg announced on April 23 that Meta would cut approximately 8,000 employees — about 10% of its global workforce — and close around 6,000 open roles, for a total headcount reduction of roughly 14,000 positions beginning May 20. The company's 2026 capital expenditure guidance, issued in
The Signal
The Permanent Variable
Iran's parliamentary speaker says the Strait will not return to its pre-war status. The AI infrastructure capex models assumed the energy shock was a temporary variable. They were wrong about the variable.
Economics
The Surplus Nobody Counts: $172B in AI Value and Who Does Not Receive It
Economics
The Measurement Problem: Why AI Job Loss Studies Keep Contradicting Each Other
Economics
The Aggregate Is Fine. The Cohort Is Not: What Three Datasets Say About Entry-Level AI Exposure
Economics
The $166 Billion Question: The Tariff Refund and Where It Goes
The SCOTUS tariff refund portal opened Monday. The $166 billion will mostly reach importers. Whether it reaches the workers, retailers, and consumers who absorbed the costs downstream is a different question — and the mechanism for answering it doesn't exist.
The Signal
The Disclosure Gap: When the Investors Who Own AI Companies Cannot See What AI Is Doing to Workers
NY State Comptroller DiNapoli has written to 100 portfolio companies demanding AI workforce transparency disclosures. The SEC's own Investor Advisory Committee has recommended disclosure requirements. The information gap between what companies know and what they tell investors is structural and docu